Assessing Human Performance Influencing Factors through LINMAP and Bayesian Belief Networks

Document Type : Article

Authors

1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

Abstract

This study aims at identifying and ranking the performance influencing factors (PIFs) that cause error in human operations. The failure weight and rate for the tasks carried out by each operator were investigated. Assessing these factors reduces human error, hence increasing safety, efficiency and job satisfaction. The methods of linear programming technique for multidimensional analysis of preference (LINMAP) and Bayesian Belief Networks were used to investigate an aircraft tire manufacturing industry. All operators in the workshops were evaluated. Based on data analysis, the tasks of each operator were weighted and the potential error rate of each task was obtained. PIFs for each workshop were ranked and prioritized so that the factors having most influence can be easily distinguished and the tasks where the operators have the highest rate of failure, can be identified. The probability of human error was obtained and in a predictive model, it can be determined that when an error occurs, which factors are most influential in its occurrence. The method utilized does not include copious pairwise, exhausting and at times confusing comparisons for operators.

Keywords


  1. References:

    1. Reason, J. “Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents”, Ashgate Publishing Company, England (1997).
    2. Hollnagel, E. “The phenotype of erroneous actions”, Man–Machine Studies, 39(1), pp. 1–32 (1993).
    3. Felice, F.D. and Petrillo, A. “Methodological Approach for Performing Human Reliability and Error Analysis in Railway Transportation System”, International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 3(5), pp. 341-353 (2011).
    4. Park, K. S. and Lee, J. I. “A new method for estimating human error probabilities: AHP–SLIM”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93(4), pp. 578-587 (2008).
    5. Ambroggi, M. D. and Trucco, P. “Modelling and assessment of dependent performance shaping factors through Analytic Network Process”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 96(7), pp. 849–860 (2011).
    6. Changa, Y. and Mosleh, A. “Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents Part 1: Overview of the IDAC Model”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 92(8), pp. 997–1013 (2007).
    7. Gertmann, D. Blackman, Marble, J. Byers, J. and C. Smith, C. “The SPAR-H Human Reliability Analysis Method”, S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Vols. NUREG/CR-6883, Washington DC, USA (2005).
    8. Hollnagel, E. “Cognitive reliability and human error analysis method: CREAM”, Institutt for Energiteknikk Halden, Norway (1998).
    9. Castiglia, F. Giardina, M. and Tomarchio, E. “Risk analysis using fuzzy set theory of accidental exposure of medical staff during brachytherapy procedures”, Journal of Radiological Protection, 30(1), pp. 49-62 (2010).
    10. Hallbert, B. Gertman, D. Lois, E. Marble, J. Blackman, J. and Byers, J. “The use of empirical data sources in HRA”, Reliablity Engineering and System Safety, 83(2), pp. 139-143 (2004).
    11. Dragan, I.M. and Isaic-Maniu, A. “The reliability of the human factor”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, pp. 1486-1494 (2014).
    12. Salmon, P. Stanton, N. Baber, C. Walker, G. and Green, D. “Human factor design & evolution method review”, Human factor integration defence technology center (2004).
    13. Chang, Y. and Mosleh, A. “Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92(8), pp. 1014-1040 (2007).
    14. Zhiqiang, S. Zhengyi, L. Erling, G. and Hongwei, X. “Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM”, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 100, pp. 28-32 (2012).
    15. Zhou, C. and Kou, X.j. “Method of Estimating Human Error Probabilities in Construction for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Processand Failure Likelihood Index Method”, Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science), 15(3), pp. 291–296 (2010).
    16. Peng-cheng, L. Guo-hua, C. Li-cao, D. and Li, Z. “A fuzzy Bayesian network approach to improve the quantification of organizational influences in HRA frameworks”, Safety Science,
      50 (7), pp. 1569-1583 (2012).
    17. Groth, K. M. and Mosleh, A. “A data-informed model of performance shaping factors for use in human reliability analysis”, University of Maryland,  231-238 (2010).
    18. Trucco, P. Cagno, E. Ruggeri, F. and Grande, O. “A Bayesian belief network modeling of organizational factors in risk analysis: a case study in maritime transportation”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 93(6), pp. 823–834 (2008).
    19. Abramson, B. “The design of belief network-based systems for price forecasting”, Computers & Electrical Engineering, 20(2), pp. 163–180 (1994).
    20. Sundaramurthi, R. and Smidts, C. “Human reliability modeling for the Next Generation System Code”, Annals of Nuclear Energy, 52 , pp. 137-156, (2013).
    21. Kyriakidis, M. Kant, V. Amir,S. and Dang, V.N. “Understanding human performance in sociotechnical systems – Steps towards a generic framework”, Safety Science, (2017).
    22. Washington, A. Clothier, R.A. Williams, B.P. and Silva, J. “Managing uncertainty in the system safety assessment of unmanned aircraft systems”, In: 17th Australian International Aerospace Congress: AIAC 17, Melbourne, Vic, Australia, pp. 611–618, (2017).
    23. Washington, A. Clothier, R. and Silva, J. “Managing uncertainty in unmanned aircraft system safety performance requirements compliance process”, In: ICUAS, Amsterdam, Netherlands, (2018).
    24. Washington, A. Clothier, R. Neogi, N. Silva, J. Hayhurst, K. and Williams, B. “Adoption of a Bayesian Belief Network for the System Safety Assessment of Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems”, Safety Science, 118, pp. 654–673, (2019). 
    25. Steijn, W.M.P. Van Kampen, J.N. Van der Beek, D. Groeneweg, J. and Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. “An integration of human factors into quantitative risk analysis using Bayesian Belief Networks towards developing a ‘QRA+’”, Safety Science, 122,pp. 104514 , (2020). 
    26. Golestani, N. Abbassi, R. Garaniya, V. Asadnia, M. and Khan, F. “Human reliability assessment for complex physical operations in harsh operating conditions”, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 140, pp. 1–13, (2020). 
    27. Zhao, Y. and Smidts, C. “CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1—methodology”, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 213, pp.107776,(2021).
    28. Zhao, Y. and Smidts, C. “CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 2—Application”, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 213, pp.107775, (2021).
    29. Wu, Y. Xu, K. Wang, R. and Xu, X. “Human reliability analysis of high-temperature molten metal operation based on fuzzy CREAM and Bayesian network”, PloS one, 16(8), pp.e0254861, (2021).
    30. Greco, S.F. Podofillini, L. and Dang, V.N. “A Bayesian model to treat within-category and crew-to-crew variability in simulator data for Human Reliability Analysis”, Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 206, pp.107309, (2021).
    31. Weize, W. and Xinwang, L. “An extended LINMAP method for multi-attribute group decision making under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment”, Procedia Computer Science, 17, pp. 490 – 497 (2013).
    32. Krieg, M. L. “A Tutorial on Bayesian Belief Networks”, DSTO Electronics and Surveillance Research Laboratory, Australia (2001).
    33. Mitchell, T. “Machine Learning”, WCB/McGraw Hill, New York, USA (1997).