A New ANN Approach for Time Series Analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Article

Authors

1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Meybod University, Iran

2 Industrial Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Iran

3 Industrial Engineering Program, Sabanci University, Turkey

Abstract

Time series analysis and accurate forecasting of energy prices are critical for both policymakers and market participants. In the practical analysis of price time series, the coefficients play vital roles; however, their accurate estimation is a challenging issue as they are affected by external factors. This study proposes a new modelling approach for Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) models based on fuzzy logic. For this purpose, we reformulated an ANN model as a fuzzy nonlinear regression model to capture the advantages of both fuzzy regression and ANN methodologies. This clear-box model can be applied to not only uncertain, ambiguous, and complex environments, but it is also capable of modelling nonlinear patterns. To illustrate the capability of the proposed approach, we report a case study of liquified natural gas (LNG) prices in Japan’s market (the world’s largest natural gas importer). The results support that the performance of the proposed approach is acceptable; moreover, it can deal with uncertain and complex environments as a clear-box model.

Keywords

References

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Scientia Iranica

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 11 May 2022

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  • Receive Date: 04 April 2021
  • Revise Date: 12 February 2022
  • Accept Date: 10 May 2022

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