Application of a novel quadratic polynomial discrete grey model to forecast energy consumption of China

Document Type : Article

Authors

1 - School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, 621010, Mianyang, China - State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, 610500, Chengdu, China

2 - School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, 621010, Mianyang, China - V.C. & V.R. Key Lab of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Normal University, 610068, Chengdu, China

3 School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, 621010, Mianyang, China

Abstract

The discrete grey modelling technique is a novel methodology of grey prediction
models, which is effective to improve the effectiveness and applicability of grey
models. In order to build a more general and effective univariate grey prediction
model, the discrete grey modelling technique is utilised in this paper to build
a quadratic polynomial discrete grey model, abbreviated as the QPDGM. The
properties of the QPDGM model have been discussed, which indicate that the
new model can be regarded as an extension of the conventional discrete grey
model and nonhomogeneous grey model, and it is also coincidence with three
classes of exponential sequences. The QPDGM model is finally applied to predict
the energy consumption of China, including the electric power, crude oil and
natural gas consumptions. The results have been compared to some commonly
used univariate grey prediction models, which indicates the QPDGM model is
generally more accurate than other models.

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