Load forecasting using Two-level Heterogeneous Ensemble Method for Smart Metered Distribution System

Document Type : Article


Department of Electrical Engineering, NIT Patna, Patna, Bihar, 800005, India


A heterogeneous ensemble methods for short-term and mid-term load forecasting is proposed here. The proposed approach comprises of a two-level hierarchy of machine learning based methods and classical methods to form the ensemble forecaster, where output of the first-stage forecasters are used as input in the second stage. Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression methods are incorporated in the proposed approach as ML forecasters, while Holt’s double exponential smoothening method and multiple linear regression method are included as classical forecasters. The proposed two-level ensemble approach forecasts realistic smart metered data more accurately and efficiently for multiple short-term and mid-term load forecasting scenarios with improved accuracy compared to any individual single stage forecasting methods. The prediction accuracy is shown to improve manifolds for the tested practical system. The proposed model also show improvements compared to existing ensemble based model.