Integrated bi-objective project selection and scheduling using Bayesian networks: A risk-based approach

Document Type : Article

Authors

Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6619, Iran.

Abstract

This paper presents a novel formulation of the integrated bi-objective problem of project selection and scheduling. The first objective is to minimize the aggregated risk by evaluating the expected value of schedule delay and the second objective is to maximize the achieved benefit. To evaluate the expected aggregated impacts of risks, an objective function based on the Bayesian Networks is proposed. In the extant mathematical models of the joint problem of project selection and scheduling, projects are selected and scheduled without considering the risk network of the projects indicating the individual and interaction effects of risks impressing the duration of the activities.
To solve the model, two solution approaches have been developed, one exact and one metaheuristic approach. Goal Programming method is used to optimally select and schedule projects. Since the problem is NP hard, an algorithm, named GPGA, which combines Goal Programming method and Genetic Algorithm is proposed. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed algorithm is assessed not only based on small size instances but also by generating and testing representative datasets of larger instances. The results of the computational experiments indicate that it has acceptable performance to handle large size and more realistic problems.

Keywords

References

References:
1. Tuli, B., Arindam, S., Bijan, S., and Kumar, S.S. "Introduction to soft-set theoretic solution of project selection problem", Benchmarking: An International Journal, 23(7), pp. 1643-1657 (2016).
2. Rathi, R., Khanduja, D., and Sharma, S.K. "A fuzzy MADM approach for project selection: a six sigma case study", Decision Science Letters, 5(2), p. 14 (2016).
3. Tahri, H. "Mathematical optimization methods: application in project portfolio management", Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 210, pp. 339-347 (2015).
4. Namazian, A. and Haji Yakhchali, S. "Modeling and solving project portfolio and contractor selection problem based on project scheduling under uncertainty", Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 226, pp. 35-42 (2016).
5. Badri, M.A., Davis, D., and Davis, D. "A comprehensive 0-1 goal programming model for project selection", International Journal of Project Management, 19(4), pp. 243-252 (2001).
6. Arratia M., N.M., Lopez I., F., Schaeffer, S.E., and Cruz-Reyes, L. "Static R&D project portfolio selection in public organizations", Decision Support Systems, 84, pp. 53-63 (2016).
7. Tavana, M., Keramatpour, M., Santos-Arteaga, F.J., and Ghorbaniane, E. "A fuzzy hybrid project portfolio selection method using data envelopment analysis, TOPSIS and integer programming", Expert Systems with Applications, 42(22), pp. 8432-8444 (2015).
8. Fatemeh, P. and Sameh Monir, E.-S. "Project selection using the combined approach of AHP and LP", Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 21(1), pp. 39-53 (2016).
9. Kellenbrink, C. and Helber, S. "Scheduling  resource constrained projects with a  flexible project structure", European Journal of Operational Research, 246(2), pp. 379-391 (2015).
10. Ji, X. and Yao, K. "Uncertain project scheduling problem with resource constraints", Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, 28(3), pp. 575-580 (2017).
11. Tofighian, A.A. and Naderi, B. "Modeling and solving the project selection and scheduling", Computers & Industrial Engineering, 83, pp. 30-38 (2015).
12. Doerner, K., Gutjahr, W.J., Hartl, R.F., Strauss, C., and Stummer, C. "Pareto ant colony optimization: A metaheuristic approach to multiobjective portfolio selection", Annals of Operations Research, 131(1), pp. 79-99 (2004).
13. Ghorbani, S. and Rabbani, M. "A new multi-objective algorithm for a project selection problem", Advances in Engineering Software, 40(1), pp. 9-14 (2009).
14. Medaglia, A.L., Graves, S.B., and Ringuest, J.L. "A multiobjective evolutionary approach for linearly constrained project selection under uncertainty", European Journal of Operational Research, 179(3), pp. 869-894 (2007).
15. Xiao, J., Ao, X.-T., and Tang, Y. "Solving software project scheduling problems with ant colony optimization", Computers & Operations Research, 40(1), pp. 33-46 (2013).
16. Wang, W.-X., Wang, X., Ge, X.-L., and Deng, L. "Multi-objective optimization model for multi-project scheduling on critical chain", Advances in Engineering Software, 68, pp. 33-39 (2014).
17. Perez, A., Quintanilla, S., Lino, P., and Valls, V. "A multi-objective approach for a project scheduling problem with due dates and temporal constraints infeasibilities", International Journal of Production Research, 52(13), pp. 3950-3965 (2014).
18. Minku, L.L., Sudholt, D., and Yao, X. "Improved evolutionary algorithm design for the project scheduling problem based on runtime analysis", IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 40(1), pp. 83-102 (2014).
19. Artigues, C., Leus, R., and Talla Nobibon, F. "Robust optimization for resource-constrained project scheduling with uncertain activity durations", Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, 25(1), pp. 175-205 (2013).
20. Suresh, M., Dutta, P., and Jain, K. "Resource constrained multi-project scheduling problem with resource transfer times", Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research, 32(06), p. 1550048 (2015).
21. Aminbakhsh, S., Gunduz, M., and Sonmez, R. "Safety risk assessment using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during planning and budgeting of construction projects", Journal of Safety Research, 46, pp. 99- 105 (2013).
22. Dikmen, I., Birgonul, M.T., and Han, S. "Using fuzzy risk assessment to rate cost overrun risk in international construction projects", International Journal of Project Management, 25(5), pp. 494-505 (2007).
23. Shi-Ming, H., I-Chu, C., Shing-Han, L., and Ming- Tong, L. "Assessing risk in ERP projects: identify and prioritize the factors", Industrial Management & Data Systems, 104(8), pp. 681-688 (2004).
24. Kuo, Y.-C. and Lu, S.-T. "Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects", International Journal of Project Management, 31(4), pp. 602-614 (2013).
25. Rodriguez, A., Ortega, F., and Concepcion, R. "A method for the evaluation of risk in IT projects", Expert Systems with Applications, 45, pp. 273-285 (2016).
26. Zavadskas, E.K., Turskis, Z., and Tamosaitiene, J. "Risk assessment of construction projects", Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 16(1), pp. 33-46 (2010).
27. Zeng, J., An, M., and Smith, N.J. "Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment", International Journal of Project Management, 25(6), pp. 589-600 (2007).
28. Cheng, M. and Lu, Y. "Developing a risk assessment method for complex pipe jacking construction projects", Automation in Construction, 58, pp. 48-59 (2015).
29. Jamshidi, A., Rahimi, S.A., Ait-kadi, D., Rebaiaia, M.L., and Ruiz, A. "Risk assessment in ERP projects using an integrated method", 3rd International Conference on Control, Engineering & Information Technology (CEIT), Tlemcen, Algeria, pp. 1-5 (2015).
30. Ching-Chow, Y., Wen-Tsaan, L., Ming-Yi, L., and Jui-Tang, H. "A study on applying FMEA to improving ERP introduction: An example of semiconductor related industries in Taiwan", International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 23(3), pp. 298-322 (2006).
31. Gierczak, M. "The quantitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI horizontal directional drilling projects applying fuzzy fault tree analysis", Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 43, pp. 67-77 (2014).
32. Hyun, K.-C., Min, S., Choi, H., Park, J., and Lee, I.-M. "Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis (FTA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applicable to shield TBM tunnels", Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 49, pp. 121-129 (2015).
33. Liang, W., Hu, J., Zhang, L., Guo, C., and Lin, W. "Assessing and classifying risk of pipeline third-party interference based on fault tree and SOM", Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 25(3), pp. 594-608 (2012).
34. Zeng, Y. and Skibniewski, M.J. "Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach", Enterprise Information Systems, 7(3), pp. 332-353 (2013).
35. Pavlos, L. and Nick, F. "Risk and uncertainty in development: A critical evaluation of using the Monte Carlo simulation method as a decision tool in real estate development projects", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 30(2), pp. 198-210 (2012).
36. Sadeghi, N., Fayek, A.R., and Pedrycz, W. "Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation and risk assessment in construction", Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 25(4), pp. 238-252 (2010).
37. Chin, K.-S., Tang, D.-W., Yang, J.-B., Wong, S.Y., and Wang, H. "Assessing new product development project risk by Bayesian network with a systematic probability generation methodology", Expert Systems with Applications, 36(6), pp. 9879-9890 (2009).
38. Hu, Y., Zhang, X., Ngai, E.W.T., Cai, R., and Liu, M. "Software project risk analysis using Bayesian networks with causality constraints", Decision Support Systems, 56, pp. 439-449 (2013).
39. Luu, V.T., Kim, S.-Y., Tuan, N.V., and Ogunlana, S.O. "Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks", International Journal of Project Management, 27(1), pp. 39-50 (2009).
40. Leu, S.-S. and Chang, C.-M. "Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects", Accident Analysis & Prevention, 54, pp. 122-133 (2013).
41. Sousa, R.L. and Einstein, H.H. "Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian networks: Porto Metro case study", Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 27(1), pp. 86-100 (2012).
42. Nordgard, D.E. and Sand, K. "Application of Bayesian networks for risk analysis of MV air insulated switch operation", Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 95(12), pp. 1358-1366 (2010).
43. Tang, C., Yi, Y., Yang, Z., and Sun, J. "Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian network", Journal of Environmental Management, 165, pp. 199-205 (2016).
44. Shabarchin, O. and Tesfamariam, S. "Internal corrosion hazard assessment of oil & gas pipelines using Bayesian belief network model", Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 40, pp. 479-495 (2016).
45. Khodakarami, V. and Abdi, A. "Project cost risk analysis: A Bayesian networks approach for modeling dependencies between cost items", International Journal of Project Management, 32(7), pp. 1233-1245 (2014).
46. Tripathy, B.B. and Biswal, M.P. "A zero-one goal programming approach for project selection", Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences, 28(4), pp. 619-626 (2007).
Scientia Iranica
Volume 26, Issue 6 - Serial Number 6
Transactions on Industrial Engineering (E)
November and December 2019
Pages 3695-3711

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 11 March 2017
  • Revise Date: 04 February 2018
  • Accept Date: 16 July 2018

Share

How to cite

Statistics