Document Type : Article

**Authors**

School of Science, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, P. R. China

**Abstract**

Aiming at the problem of small sample modelling of oil price and exchange rate with time-delayed causality, a grey multivariate time lag model and its solution are proposed against the new economic background of economic development, structural optimization and power conversion. Considering the difficulty of solving q-order differential equations analytically, we obtain a numerical solution. On the basis of this solution, the validity of the model is proved. The numerical results show that the model can describe and predict the operating rules of oil price and exchange rate economic systems with time delay, and it is concluded that the development of oil price and exchange rate is not coordinated under the new state of the economy. The relationship of oil prices and the exchange rate has changed in this state, oil prices have a positive effect on the rise of the exchange rate.

**Keywords**

- Grey system
- model
- Time-delay grey correlation analysis
- particle swarm optimization
- New state of economy

**Main Subjects**

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Transactions on Industrial Engineering (E)

July and August 2019Pages 2472-2483