Document Type : Article

**Authors**

Department of Civil Engineering, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran

**Abstract**

Settlement and deformation of the embankment dams are among the major damages caused by earthquakes, eventually leading to dam instability. Therefore, accurate assessment of the seismic settlement of embankment dams is of particular concern. This study aims to evaluate the settlement of embankment dams subjected to earthquake loads using regression-based methods. A wide-ranging real data on crest settlement of embankment dams caused by earthquakes was collected and analyzed. Yield acceleration of dam, maximum horizontal earthquake acceleration, fundamental period of dam body, predominant period of earthquake, and earthquake magnitude were considered as the most influential parameters affecting the seismic crest settlement of embankment dams. Using support vector regression method as well as multiple linear regression method, two models were developed to estimate earthquake induced crest settlement of embankment dams. Subsequently, sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to assess the behavior of the proposed models under different conditions. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed models was compared with the existing relationship for estimation of earthquake induced crest settlement of embankment dams. Although both MLR- and SVR-based models have an acceptable accuracy in estimation of the crest settlement of embankment dams under earthquake loading, the SVR-based model has a higher accuracy.

**Keywords**

References:

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34. Kovacevic, M., Bajat, B., and Gajic, B. "Soil type classification and estimation of soil properties using support vector machines", Geoderma, 154(3), pp. 340- 347 (2010).

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36. Lee, D., Kim, G., and Lee, K.E. "Soil moisture prediction using a support vector regression", Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 24(2), pp. 401-408 (2013).

37. Elbisy, M.S. "Support vector machine and regression analysis to predict the field hydraulic conductivity of sandy soil", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 19(7), pp. 2307-2316 (2015).

38. Soltani, N. and Bagheripour, M.H. "Seismic wave scatter study in valleys using coupled 2D finite element approach and absorbing boundaries", Scientia Iranica, 24(1), pp. 110-120 (2017).

39. Jafarian, Y., Javdanian, H., and Haddad, A. "Straindependent dynamic properties of Bushehr siliceouscarbonate sand: Experimental and comparative study", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 107, pp. 339-349 (2018).

40. Jafarian, Y., Javdanian, H., and Haddad, A. "Dynamic properties of calcareous and siliceous sands under isotropic and anisotropic stress conditions", Soils and Foundations, 58(1), pp. 172-184 (2018).

41. Gazetas, P. and Dakoulas, P. "Seismic analysis and design of rockfill dams", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 11, pp. 27-61 (1991).

42. Vapnik, V. "An overview of statistical learning theory", IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(5), pp. 988-999 (1999).

43. Smola, A.J. and Scholkopf, B. "A tutorial on support vector regression", Statistics and Computing, 14(3), pp. 199-222 (2004).

44. Ustun, B., Melssen. W.J., Oudenhuijzen, M., and Buydens, L.M.C. "Determination of optimal support vector regression parameters by genetic algorithms and simplex optimization", Analytica Chemica Acta, 544, pp. 292-305 (2005).

45. Vapnik, V., The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer Science & Business Media (2013).

46. Cherkassky, V. and Ma, Y. "Practical selection of SVM parameters and noise estimation for SVM regression", Neural Networks, 17(1), pp. 113-126 (2004).

47. Zarif Sanayei, H.R., Talebbeydokhti, N., and Moradkhani, H. "3D estimation of metal elements in sediments of the Caspian Sea with moving least square and radial basis function interpolation methods", Scientia Iranica, 22(5), pp. 1661-1673 (2015).

48. Fattahi, H. "Prediction of earthquake induced displacements of slopes using hybrid support vector regression with particle swarm optimization", Int J Optim Civil Eng, 5(3), pp. 267-282 (2015).

49. Swaisgood, J.R. "Embankment dam deformations caused by earthquakes", In Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 14 (2003).

2. Newmark, N.M. "Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments", Geotechnique, 15(2), pp. 139-160 (1965).

3. Garini, E., Gazetas, G., and Anastasopoulos, I. "Asymmetric 'Newmark' sliding caused by motions containing severe 'directivity' and ' ing' pulses", Geotechnique, 61(9), pp. 733-756 (2011).

4. Makdisi, F.I. and Seed, H.B. "Simplified procedure for estimating dam and embankment earthquake-induced deformations", Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 104(7), pp. 849-867 (1978).

5. Sarma, S.K. "Seismic stability of earth dams and embankments", Geotechnique, 25(4), pp. 743-761 (1975).

6. Bray, J.D., Macedo, J., and Travasarou, T. "Simplified procedure for estimating seismic slope displacements for subduction zone earthquakes", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 144(3), 04017124 (2017).

7. Hynes-Grin, M.E. and Franklin, A.G. "Rationalizing the seismic coecient method", Misc. Paper GL-84-13. U.S. Army Waterway Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Mississippi (1984).

8. Kramer, S.L. and Smith, M.W. "Modified Newmark model for seismic displacements of compliant slopes", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 123(7), pp. 635-644 (1997).

9. Bray, J.D. and Rathje, E.M. "Earthquake-induced displacements of solid-waste landfills", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 124(3), pp. 242-253 (1998).

10. Rathje, E.M. and Bray, J.D. "Nonlinear coupled seismic sliding analysis of earth structures", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 126(11), pp. 1002-1014 (2000).

11. Bray, J.D. and Travasarou, T. "Simplified procedure for estimating earthquake-induced deviatoric slope displacements", Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 133(4), pp. 381-392 (2007).

12. Jibson, R.W. "Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement", Engineering Geology, 91(2), pp. 209-218 (2007).

13. Ebrahimian, B. "Numerical analysis of nonlinear dynamic behavior of earth dams", Frontiers of Architecture and Civil Engineering in China, 5(1), pp. 24-40 (2011).

14. Park, D.S. and Kim, N.R. "Safety evaluation of cored rockfill dams under high seismicity using dynamic centrifuge modeling", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 97, pp. 345-363 (2017).

15. Kim, M.K., Lee, S.H., Choo, Y.W., and Kim, D.S. "Seismic behaviors of earth-core and concrete-faced rock-fill dams by dynamic centrifuge tests", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 31(11), pp. 1579- 1593 (2011).

16. Singh, R., Roy, D., and Das, D. "A correlation for permanent earthquake-induced deformation of earth embankments", Engineering Geology, 90(3), pp. 174- 185 (2007).

17. Singh, R. and Roy. D. "Estimation of earthquakeinduced crest settlements of embankments", American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 2(3), pp. 515-525 (2009).

18. Jafarian, Y., Haddad, A., and Javdanian, H. "Predictive model for normalized shear modulus of cohesive soils", Acta Geodynamica et Geomaterialia, 11(1), pp. 89-100 (2014).

19. Javdanian, H., Jafarian, Y., and Haddad, A. "Predicting damping ratio of fine-grained soils using soft computing methodology", Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 8(6), pp. 3959-3969 (2015).

20. Javdanian, H., Haddad, A., and Jafarian, A. "Evaluation of dynamic behavior of fine-grained soils using group method of data handling", Transportation Infrastructure Engineering, 1(3), pp. 77-92 (2015).

21. Javdanian, H. "Assessment of shear stiffness ratio of cohesionless soils using neural modeling", Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 3(3), pp. 1045-1053 (2017).

22. Javdanian, H. "The Effect of geopolymerization on the unconfined compressive strength of stabilized finegrained soils", International Journal of Engineering- Transactions B: Applications, 30(11), pp. 1673-1680 (2017).

23. Javdanian, H. and Lee, S. "Evaluating unconfined compressive strength of cohesive soils stabilized with geopolymer: a computational intelligence approach", Engineering with Computers, 35(1), pp. 191-199 (2019).

24. Javdanian, H., Haddad, A., and Mehrzad, B. "Experimental and numerical investigation of the bearing capacity of adjacent footings on reinforced soil", Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 17(R), pp. 2597-2617 (2012).

25. Javdanian, H. "Evaluation of soil liquefaction potential using energy approach: experimental and statistical investigation", Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s10064-017-1201-6.

26. Yaghmaei-Sabegh, S. "Earthquake ground-motion duration estimation by using of general regression neural network", Scientia Iranica, 25(5), pp. 2425-2439 (2017). DOI: 10.24200/sci.2017.4217.

27. Najafzadeh, M. and Barani, G.A. "Comparison of group method of data handling based genetic programming and back propagation systems to predict scour depth around bridge piers", Scientia Iranica, 18(6), pp. 1207-1213 (2011).

28. Najafzadeh, M., Barani, G.A., and Hessami-Kermani, M.R. "Group method of data handling to predict scour depth around vertical piles under regular waves", Scientia Iranica, 20(3), pp. 406-413 (2013).

29. Najafzadeh, M. and Lim, S.Y. "Application of improved neuro-fuzzy GMDH to predict scour depth at sluice gates", Earth Science Informatics, 8(1), pp. 187- 196 (2015).

30. Najafzadeh, M., Shiri, J., and Rezaie-Balf, M. "New expression-based models to estimate scour depth at clear water conditions in rectangular channels", Marine Georesources & Geotechnology, 36(2), pp. 227- 235 (2018).

31. Najafzadeh, M., Tafarojnoruz, A., and Lim, S.Y. "Prediction of local scour depth downstream of sluice gates using data-driven models", ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 23(2), pp. 195-202 (2017).

32. Shooshpasha, I., Amiri, I., and MolaAbasi, H. "An investigation of friction angle correlation with geotechnical properties for granular soils using GMDH type neural networks", Scientia Iranica, 22(1), pp. 157-164 (2015).

33. Habibagahi, G. and Taherian, M. "Prediction of collapse potential for compacted soils using artificial neural networks", Scientia Iranica, 11(1), pp. 1-20 (2004).

34. Kovacevic, M., Bajat, B., and Gajic, B. "Soil type classification and estimation of soil properties using support vector machines", Geoderma, 154(3), pp. 340- 347 (2010).

35. Pasolli, L., Notarnicola, C., and Bruzzone, L. "Estimating soil moisture with the support vector regression technique", IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 8(6), pp. 1080-1084 (2011).

36. Lee, D., Kim, G., and Lee, K.E. "Soil moisture prediction using a support vector regression", Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 24(2), pp. 401-408 (2013).

37. Elbisy, M.S. "Support vector machine and regression analysis to predict the field hydraulic conductivity of sandy soil", KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 19(7), pp. 2307-2316 (2015).

38. Soltani, N. and Bagheripour, M.H. "Seismic wave scatter study in valleys using coupled 2D finite element approach and absorbing boundaries", Scientia Iranica, 24(1), pp. 110-120 (2017).

39. Jafarian, Y., Javdanian, H., and Haddad, A. "Straindependent dynamic properties of Bushehr siliceouscarbonate sand: Experimental and comparative study", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 107, pp. 339-349 (2018).

40. Jafarian, Y., Javdanian, H., and Haddad, A. "Dynamic properties of calcareous and siliceous sands under isotropic and anisotropic stress conditions", Soils and Foundations, 58(1), pp. 172-184 (2018).

41. Gazetas, P. and Dakoulas, P. "Seismic analysis and design of rockfill dams", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 11, pp. 27-61 (1991).

42. Vapnik, V. "An overview of statistical learning theory", IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 10(5), pp. 988-999 (1999).

43. Smola, A.J. and Scholkopf, B. "A tutorial on support vector regression", Statistics and Computing, 14(3), pp. 199-222 (2004).

44. Ustun, B., Melssen. W.J., Oudenhuijzen, M., and Buydens, L.M.C. "Determination of optimal support vector regression parameters by genetic algorithms and simplex optimization", Analytica Chemica Acta, 544, pp. 292-305 (2005).

45. Vapnik, V., The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer Science & Business Media (2013).

46. Cherkassky, V. and Ma, Y. "Practical selection of SVM parameters and noise estimation for SVM regression", Neural Networks, 17(1), pp. 113-126 (2004).

47. Zarif Sanayei, H.R., Talebbeydokhti, N., and Moradkhani, H. "3D estimation of metal elements in sediments of the Caspian Sea with moving least square and radial basis function interpolation methods", Scientia Iranica, 22(5), pp. 1661-1673 (2015).

48. Fattahi, H. "Prediction of earthquake induced displacements of slopes using hybrid support vector regression with particle swarm optimization", Int J Optim Civil Eng, 5(3), pp. 267-282 (2015).

49. Swaisgood, J.R. "Embankment dam deformations caused by earthquakes", In Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 14 (2003).

Transactions on Civil Engineering (A)

March and April 2020Pages 671-681