A seismic slope stability probabilistic model based on Bishop's method using analytical approach


Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran


Probabilistic seismic slope stability analysis provides a tool for considering uncertainty of the soil parameters and earthquake characteristics. In this paper, the Jointly Distributed Random Variables (JDRV) method is used as an analytical method to develop a probabilistic model of seismic slope stability based on Bishop's method. The selected stochastic parameters are internal friction angle, cohesion and unit weight of soil, which are modeled using a truncated normal probability density function (pdf) and the horizontal seismic coefficient which is considered to have a truncated exponential probability density function. Comparison of the probability density functions of slope safety factor with the Monte Carlo simulation (MCs) indicates superior performance of the proposed approach. However, the required time to reach the same probability of failure is greater for the MCs than the JDRV method. It is shown that internal friction angle is the most influential parameter in the slope stability analysis of finite slopes. To assess the effect of seismic loading, the slope stability reliability analysis is made based on total stresses without seismic loading and with seismic loading. As a result two probabilistic models are proposed.