Relationships of yield-capacity-risk in a multiple reservoir system: The Munzur River Basin in Turkey


Kocaeli University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering, 41100, Kocaeli, Turkey


The aim of this study is to determine the relationships of yield-capacity-risk in a multiple reservoir system. In this study, yield, capacity and risk have been defined as the average energy production, storage volume of reservoir and obtaining the same yield with lower capacity, respectively. Then, an optimization model using dynamic programming with successive approximations (DPSA) for a multi-reservoir system for energy production has been developed. The objective function used in the model has the objective of the maximization of the total energy. A multi-reservoir system in the Munzur River Basin of Turkey has been selected for the application. The results of the proposed approach have been evaluated with regard to relationships of yield-capacity-risk. As a result, the capacity was increased when the yield was raised, and the same yield has been obtained in a different capacity by reducing the capacity under a certain yield risk. The yield risk has been raised in the direction of the yield coordinate of the yield-capacity-yield risk curve.