Forecasting and making policies for Postal Services: system dynamics approach (Iran Post Company as a case study)

Document Type : Article


1 Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IranDoc), Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Industrial Management and Information Technology, Management and Accounting Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Tehran, Iran

4 Department of Statistics, Mathematics, Science Faculty, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran


The main activity in postal services is to deliver letter mails and parcels. By changing customers’ needs and behaviors along with emerging new technologies, postal services have to be renovated. Thus, understanding the changing environment, forecasting the performance, identifying key drivers, and making effective interventions are critical for any further actions. Performing these actions for Iran Post Company is the focus of this paper. Therefore, system dynamic approach is chosen, effective variables are determined and causal-loop diagram (CLD) and stock and flow diagram (SFD) are developed. The results are then validated using expert panels and historical data and the developed model is utilized for policy making. Therefore, two scenarios are designed based on changes in postal rates, quality of services and e-service market share. These scenarios could provide CEOs with critical information to make effective interventions.